In a recent statement, Pakistan Ministry of Finance has reassured the public that there is no immediate threat of a petroleum crisis in the country. According to the ministry, sufficient reserves of petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) are currently available to meet national demand for at least 12 and 17 days respectively. This announcement comes in the wake of rising concerns from various stakeholders within the oil supply chain about potential disruptions due to import and logistics-related challenges.
The ministry emphasized that the government is closely monitoring the situation and has taken proactive measures to prevent any supply disruption. Authorities have urged the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) to ensure compliance by oil marketing companies (OMCs) and take strict action against any entities found hoarding or manipulating fuel distribution.
Simultaneously, the Petroleum Division has directed oil refineries operating in the country to boost local production of petroleum products. Pakistan State Oil (PSO), the country’s leading state-run fuel supplier, is also playing a critical role in ensuring continued supply across all provinces.
Despite the Ministry’s optimistic outlook, the situation is more complex beneath the surface. A letter from the Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) to the government has painted a more cautious picture. OCAC has warned that difficulties in opening Letters of Credit (LCs) are putting pressure on oil imports. Several cargo shipments have reportedly been canceled, and delays in financial transactions are threatening the reliability of the country’s petroleum supply chain.
According to the OCAC, Pakistan imports a significant volume of its petroleum needs—approximately 430,000 metric tons of petrol and 200,000 metric tons of diesel every month. These imports cost the country roughly $1.3 billion. Any interruption in this cycle, even for a short period, could have far-reaching consequences. The council noted that restoring the disrupted supply chain, once affected, could take six to eight weeks. This kind of delay would likely lead to localized fuel shortages, panic buying, and increased pressure on local logistics.
Further complicating matters, four of Pakistan’s major oil refineries recently wrote to the Secretary of Petroleum, warning of the opposite problem—oversupply. According to the refineries, Pakistan currently holds more than 770,000 tons of diesel in stock, equivalent to over 50 days of national demand. The refineries expressed concern that continued imports during this period of high inventory could disrupt refinery operations and create a logistical bottleneck in fuel storage and distribution networks.
They have requested the government to either suspend or delay planned diesel imports for the near term to balance local production and consumption levels. This request highlights the ongoing challenge of aligning import policy with on-ground realities and infrastructure capacities.
The contrasting reports—on one hand of impending import delays, and on the other of oversupply—reveal a deeper issue in Pakistan’s energy management system. There is an evident lack of coordination between stakeholders, from importers and refineries to regulatory authorities and financial institutions. While the reserves are currently sufficient, the system remains fragile and vulnerable to disruption, particularly in the face of economic stress, fluctuating global oil prices, and foreign exchange challenges.
Pakistan’s energy security is intricately tied to its macroeconomic stability. A weakened rupee, rising global oil prices, and difficulties in foreign exchange transactions make fuel imports costlier and riskier. This directly affects the ability of OMCs to maintain a stable supply of fuel products.
To prevent any future crisis, experts suggest that Pakistan must strengthen its strategic petroleum reserves and improve coordination between public and private sector players. Transparency in inventory data, timely decision-making on imports, and supportive banking channels for essential imports like fuel are crucial to maintaining a stable fuel supply chain.
Moreover, as global energy markets evolve, Pakistan may also need to consider diversifying its energy sources and investing more in alternative energy infrastructure such as LNG, renewables, and domestic exploration efforts. This would reduce over-reliance on imported fuels and help insulate the economy from external shocks.
In conclusion, while the Ministry of Finance’s assurance provides some immediate relief to consumers and businesses, underlying risks persist. The situation underscores the need for better coordination, stronger regulatory oversight, and long-term policy planning to secure Pakistan’s energy future. Without these measures, even ample reserves may not be enough to prevent future disruptions in the fuel supply chain.
Reference: پیٹرولیم مصنوعات کے وافر ذخائر موجود، فوری بحران کا خطرہ نہیں، وزارت خزانہ
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